SPC MD 1205

MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... FOR NORTHERN OK...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO

Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019

Areas affected...northern OK...central into eastern KS and western
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...

Valid 230046Z - 230215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue across north-central
OK into central and eastern KS and parts of western/northern MO this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Several lines and clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing
this evening across northwest OK, central and eastern KS and
northwest MO. Some hints of better organization into a forward
propagating line/bowing segment are apparent across parts of central
into northeast KS to the west of Topeka and Kansas City. Cold pool
generation with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s were noted
behind the line of storms across north-central KS with some
indications of a rear-inflow jet based on lower reflectivity returns
behind the developing apex of the bow near Manhattan, KS. In fact,
estimated winds near 60 mph and some minor wind damage has been
reported in this vicinity.

Further south, a line of storms extended from near Wichita
southwestward into northwest OK. Wind gusts of 60-70 mph and 1 inch
diameter hail have been reported with these storms. A third line of
storms across north-central MO also showed signs of more organized
forward propagation as it tracks eastward at around 40-50 mph.
Estimated gusts to 60 mph and minor damage was also occurring with
this line. 

Guidance has not performed overly well in depicting ongoing
convection and therefore evolution of storms is a bit uncertain.
However, an increasing low level jet through the evening will
support continued organized severe convection into the nighttime
hours. To add to the complexity of convective evolution overnight,
an MCV is tracking north/northeast across central into northern OK.
What role this feature may play also remains unclear. What seems to
be a reasonable expectation is that one or more bowing
segments/forward propagating clusters will spread eastward across
eastern KS into western MO where 00z RAOBs from TOP and SGF show an
uncapped, strongly unstable, steep lapse rate environment. As such,
the damaging wind threat will continue across WW 426 through the 03z
expiration time. A new downstream watch and/or additional watch
extensions may be needed within the next couple of hours to address
the ongoing threat.

..Leitman.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   35829939 36169940 36179963 36619962 36619930 36849931
            37009947 37019902 38009901 38039891 38249892 38259904
            39139903 39159851 39229850 39239795 39999789 40009538
            40199544 40319564 40579576 40599272 40379268 40359284
            40049285 40039335 39939334 39959375 39239376 39239356
            39209346 38189347 38199405 38049405 38039550 37719551
            37719596 37589594 37599650 37019651 37009674 36789672
            36709691 36709706 36589705 36599687 36529692 36489705
            36339705 36339690 36229691 36169695 36179719 36189766
            35749767 35739831 35549830 35559866 35809868 35829939 

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