SPC MD 958

MD 0958 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EAST-CENTRAL NM

Mesoscale Discussion 0958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2019

Areas affected...TX and OK Panhandles...east-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 022355Z - 030100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe storms will probably increase this
evening.  Large hail and severe gusts are the hazards.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows new convective
development over east-central NM to the east of severe thunderstorm
watch 317.  It is not entire clear how storms over NM will evolve
but model guidance is suggestive of storms moving or developing over
the TX/OK Panhandles this evening.  The 00z Amarillo, TX raob showed
an 8.1 degree C/km 700-500mb lapse rate.  Although flow is weak from
the surface to 500mb, strong west-southwesterly shear is present in
the 500mb-200mb layer.  Large hail and severe gusts will be the
threats with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36970294 37000137 36390107 34760149 34540232 34580405
            35070406 35550331 36970294 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0958.html