SPC MD 982

MD 0982 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328... FOR NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

Mesoscale Discussion 0982
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2019

Areas affected...northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 050040Z - 050245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...Areas of damaging winds remain possible within WW 328 as a
line of storms moves rapidly southeast toward southwest Wisconsin
and northeast Iowa. However, a new watch may not be needed if latest
trends persist.

DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of damaging winds is currently
over extreme southeast MN and is now entering southwest WI. This
leading portion of the line likely contains the strongest wind gusts
with fastest forward motion. Western portions of the line extend
across northern IA and back into southwest MN, parallel to the flow
aloft. 

The environment ahead of the WI portion of the bow is sufficiently
unstable, with MLCAPE likely in the 1000-1500 J/kg range judging
from the 00Z DVN sounding. The fast forward motion and organized
cold pool may allow for a few strong to severe wind gusts near the
eastern bounds of WW 328, or a bit farther eastward into southern
WI. However, overall storm trends suggest decreasingly storm
strength with time.

Western areas will remain in close proximity to a warm, unstable air
mass, with sporadic strong to severe storms moving slowly along the
northwest-southeast oriented outflow boundary.

..Jewell.. 06/05/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42609363 42839411 43079425 43399428 43539409 43489347
            43499289 43539228 43669180 43939149 44399123 44619095
            44529028 44288984 43898957 43288945 42928965 42649005
            42459092 42479193 42519287 42609363 

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