SPC Jul 2, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2019

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT
INTO NORTHWEST ND...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible into late evening from
eastern Montana into northwest North Dakota. The primary threats
will be damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Widely scattered strong/locally severe thunderstorms will likely
persist into mid evening across portions of MT, given the presence
of MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and effective shear around 40
kt. Increasing MLCINH with time should result in a general decrease
in storm coverage and intensity into the late evening. One possible
exception to this may be from northeast MT into northwest ND, where
short-term guidance continues to show some potential for upscale
growth as the low-level jet increases tonight. Should upscale growth
occur, some potential for severe wind gusts will spread into
northwest ND late tonight.

...Northern IA/Southern MN into WI...
Multiple clusters of convection will likely continue through the
night from northern IA/southern MN into WI, generally to the cool
side of an outflow-reinforced cold front. While isolated instances
of hail are possible this evening and a few strong wind gusts are
possible with any clusters through much of the night, no significant
uptick in convective organization is expected, with the severe
threat expected to be generally limited in coverage and intensity. 

...Central High Plains into NE...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will remain possible for a couple of
hours this evening from the central High Plains into Nebraska,
though a general decrease in coverage and intensity is expected with
time given increasing MLCINH and limited large-scale ascent across
the region. The strongest cells will be capable of hail and locally
damaging wind gusts until around 02-03Z. 

...OR...
While widespread cloudiness has limited destabilization across much
of OR, a few strong thunderstorms remain possible into this evening
in advance of a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
The strongest cells will be capable of producing strong wind gusts
and small hail into mid evening before the threat diminishes later
tonight.

..Dean.. 07/02/2019

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html