SPC MD 1350

MD 1350 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...478... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019

Areas affected...Parts of northwest into north central South Dakota
and south central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...478...

Valid 030033Z - 030200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477, 478
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms posing some risk for severe hail continues, and an
increasing risk for strong wind gusts may still develop through 9-10
PM MDT, mainly across northwestern through north central South
Dakota into south central North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to grow upscale across the high
plains, from just northwest of the Black Hills northward into areas
near/east of Dickinson ND.  Intensification and organization have
been slow to develop, but there does appear a gradual strengthening
of the associated surface cold pool.  As it progresses eastward
during the next few hours, inflow and lift along its leading edge
will encounter increasingly moist boundary layer air with surface
dew points in the mid/upper 60s F).  As it does, associated
instability still provides potential for substantive further
intensification and organization through 02-03Z, in the presence of
strong deep layer shear, which would probably be accompanied by
increasing potential for strong surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   46060247 46870060 46869897 45770008 44940117 44590198
            44360309 44980300 45520287 46060247 

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