SPC MD 1357

MD 1357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2019

Areas affected...portions of northwest/north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 040006Z - 040200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing risk for damaging winds and isolated large
hail is possible this evening.  A watch is possible if confidence
increases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms.

DISCUSSION...A short line segment of strong thunderstorms was moving
east across the western NE panhandle at 00Z.  Concurrently, a line
of severe storms with a history of producing tornadoes and large
hail was located over Bennett County, SD and extreme northwest
Cherry County, NE.  As weak warm advection contributes to increasing
storm coverage this evening, there is some potential for an
increasing severe risk with an organizing cold pool across the
discussion area.  The area is on the southern periphery of the
stronger deep shear, and moderate-strong surface-based instability
suggests at least some risk for organized storms with a severe wind
and hail risk through mid-late evening.

The 01Z Day One Convective Outlook will expand Slight Risk
probabilities southward across the discussion area, and trends are
being monitored for increasing storm organization that would warrant
watch issuance.

..Bunting/Hart.. 07/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

LAT...LON   41829991 41750143 42000260 42610277 42890271 42960243
            42970144 42979979 42729950 42489939 41969950 41829991 

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