SPC MD 1738

MD 1738 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 582... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH NORTHWEST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Areas affected...northeast Colorado through northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582...

Valid 142358Z - 150130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms with large hail and
downburst winds will persist through about 02Z, followed by a
diminishing trend.

DISCUSSION...New storms have recently developed near the
CO/northwest KS border along what appears to be the merger between a
northwest-southeast oriented boundary and a southwest advancing
outflow boundary. It remains possible that other isolated storms may
develop farther northwest over the higher terrain and spread
southeast. Vertical wind profiles with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear
support potential for some supercell structures. Activity is
developing within an environment characterized by weak forcing aloft
suggesting storms are mostly diurnally driven and should remain
isolated. Convective inhibition will increase substantially with
onset of nocturnal cooling, and storms are expected to begin a
gradual weakening trend by 02Z.

..Dial.. 08/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41000272 39790175 38840168 38580242 38690370 39250431
            40830459 41000272 

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