Mesoscale Discussion 1776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019
Areas affected...Portions of western/central NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 180000Z - 180200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A very isolated severe threat may exist this evening, with
large hail and strong/gusty winds possible. However, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time, mainly due to the isolated nature of
the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this
evening across the NE Panhandle ahead of a southward-moving cold
front. The boundary layer across this region is very well mixed,
with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to upper 50s and
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of the front. As these
storms move eastward over the next couple of hours, they should
encounter greater low-level moisture and gradually increasing
instability. There appears to be some potential for this activity to
strengthen as it moves eastward across western/central NE as a
southerly low-level jet strengthens later this evening mainly over
central into eastern NE. A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level westerly winds
has overspread this region, which is contributing to similar values
of effective bulk shear. Supercells would conditionally be possible
given the expected instability/shear parameter space, but overall
convective coverage remains highly uncertain through this evening.
If storms strengthen, then both large hail and strong/gusty winds
would be possible. Regardless, watch issuance appears unlikely at
this time, mainly due to the expected isolated nature of the severe
threat.
..Gleason/Guyer.. 08/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42410267 42670167 42659975 42209932 41029930 40970017
40990185 41280233 42080264 42410267
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1776.html
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