Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180015Z - 180245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms have developed across the eastern Texas Panhandle, Texas Rolling Plains, and western Oklahoma. Severe wind will be the main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Temperatures warmed into the low 100s F with dewpoints in the mid 50s to 60s F this afternoon/evening across the southern Plains. A surface pressure trough extending southward through the Texas Panhandle along with deep boundary layer mixing helped initiate storms during the last hour or so. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 25-40 knots should support some transient supercellular development. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and dry sub-cloud layer, severe wind appears to be the main threat with severe wind recently reportedin Altus and Dickens County, Texas. Large hail is also possible with 1" hail recently reported in Beckham County, Oklahoma. However, warm mid-level temperatures and marginal shear/instability may mitigate hail growth. Storms may grow upscale and continue moving eastward after sunset as the low-level jet strengthens across the area. However, the overall severe threat should remain marginal and relatively isolated, thus a watch issuance is unlikely. ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33589897 33019990 33090064 33930151 34830107 35440074 36550003 36699907 36449832 36239799 35689771 35099773 34499805 34049844 33589897Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1777.html
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