Saturday, August 17, 2019

SPC MD 1777

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA
MD 1777 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180015Z - 180245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have developed across the eastern Texas Panhandle,
Texas Rolling Plains, and western Oklahoma. Severe wind will be the
main threat, but a watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures warmed into the low 100s F with dewpoints
in the mid 50s to 60s F this afternoon/evening across the southern
Plains. A surface pressure trough extending southward through the
Texas Panhandle along with deep boundary layer mixing helped
initiate storms during the last hour or so. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and effective bulk shear of 25-40 knots should support some
transient supercellular development. Given the steep low-level lapse
rates and dry sub-cloud layer, severe wind appears to be the main
threat with severe wind recently reportedin Altus and Dickens
County, Texas. Large hail is also possible with 1" hail recently
reported in Beckham County, Oklahoma. However, warm mid-level
temperatures and marginal shear/instability may mitigate hail
growth. 

Storms may grow upscale and continue moving eastward after sunset as
the low-level jet strengthens across the area. However, the overall
severe threat should remain marginal and relatively isolated, thus a
watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 08/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33589897 33019990 33090064 33930151 34830107 35440074
            36550003 36699907 36449832 36239799 35689771 35099773
            34499805 34049844 33589897 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1777.html

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