SPC MD 1859

MD 1859 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...BLACK HILLS VICINITY

Mesoscale Discussion 1859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0715 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Areas affected...Northeastern Wyoming...Black Hills vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 260015Z - 260215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail are likely this
evening/overnight. An upgrade to Slight Risk in the highlighted area
will be forthcoming in the 01Z Convective Outlook. A WW is also
being considered.

DISCUSSION...Storms have rapidly intensified in northeast Wyoming
early this evening. With subtle mid-level ascent approaching, this
activity is likely to continue. While buoyancy will generally be
weak, mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km, strong effective shear, and
long hodographs will support a threat for large hail. Buoyancy will
increase to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE as storms enter southwest South
Dakota. Furthermore, a modest increase in the low-level jet across
western Nebraska into southwest will also support continued storm
activity this evening. A upgrade to Slight Risk for this area for
the 01Z Convective Outlook is forthcoming. A WW is also being
considered for this region.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   44160587 44800575 44960501 44630337 44280234 43560244
            43120283 43080386 43410455 44160587 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1859.html