SPC MD 1909

MD 1909 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 630... FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARIZONA

Mesoscale Discussion 1909
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Areas affected...Southeast California...Southwest and Central
Arizona

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630...

Valid 020025Z - 020230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will continue across central and
western parts of WW 630 over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery across southern and central
Arizona shows a couple of areas of strong thunderstorms. The first
is located between the Flagstaff and Phoenix area with the second to
the southwest of the Phoenix near the Arizona-Mexico border. The RAP
is analyzing moderate instability across the southern half of
Arizona with the strongest instability located in southwestern
Arizona where MLCAPE values are estimated near 2500 J/kg. The wind
profile is from the east with 20 to 25 kt of flow near 500 mb as
evidenced on the Tuscon 00Z sounding. This combined with hot surface
temperatures and a nearly dry adiabatic layer from the surface to
700 mb should promote isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger
multicells.

..Broyles.. 09/02/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31861308 33071162 33941144 34731188 35041288 35161379
            34701447 33951490 32491502 31861308 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1909.html