SPC MD 472

MD 0472 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 146... FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX

Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2020

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas into the
Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 146...

Valid 250002Z - 250200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 146 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/tornado threat is increasing, particularly across
northern parts of the watch in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Storms have been slow to develop across the WW area,
with entrainment issues apparent per visible satellite imagery. 
However, robust storm development is now underway near the Red River
west/northwest of Paris TX.  Here, a mesolow is analyzed in the
Johnston County OK vicinity along the advancing surface front, with
low-level flow backed across the valley area to the east. 

Several deep/rotating updrafts are rapidly evolving in this area,
with a tornado recently reported near Paris, along with 2" hail. 
Very large hail is expected across northern parts of the watch over
the next 1-2 hours, along with locally damaging winds and continued
tornado potential, as these storms likely continue/spread
east-southeastward with time.

Other storm development is still expected southward -- both near and
ahead of the front -- over the next hour or so, per consistent CAM
guidance and persistent, congested cumulus per visible imagery. 
All-hazard severe risk would exist with any storms which develop.

..Goss.. 04/25/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33749596 34909554 34779352 34179301 32669311 31659424
            31409643 31969666 33749596 

33919589 34129577 33889479 33719435 33209482 33229541 33599602
            33919589 

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