Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020
Areas affected...central and northern Arkansas...southast
Missouri...western Kentucky and southern Illinoise
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 282341Z - 290045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to continue southeast through
the lower and middle MS Valley regions this evening. A new WW will
likely be needed prior to 01Z from central AR through southeast MO
and southern IL.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a line of strong to severe storms
extends from central IL southwest through central MO into northeast
and central OK moving southeast at 35 kt. A corridor of moderate to
strong instability with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides downstream
from the line. Effective bulk shear from 40-45 kt will continue to
support organized structures including embedded supercells and
bowing segments. A mesolow circulation was also indicated in
southwest MO moving east southeast. The low-level jet has increased
to 35-40 kt in this region with 0-1 hodographs sufficient for a few
low-level mesocyclones. While a couple of tornadoes will remain
possible, the primary threat should be damaging wind due to expected
predominant linear modes.
..Dial/Edwards.. 04/28/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 34729398 36279242 38918885 38858776 37668845 34219234
34729398
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0491.html
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