SPC MD 502

MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA

Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Peninsula into
southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292345Z - 300145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential risk for a couple of brief tornadoes is evident
from central portions of the Florida Panhandle northeastward into
southwestern Georgia.  Limited nature of the risk suggests that WW
issuance will likely not be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-continuous band of
thunderstorms crossing the discussion area, within a narrow plume of
500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, where southerly surface
trajectories ahead of the front are advecting a corridor of mid to
upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf.

Within this region, locally backed surface winds -- moreso than
areas both east and west -- are contributing to enhanced low-level
shear -- i.e. enlarged, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs and
35 to 30 kt 0-1km shear.

Despite largely non-discrete storm mode, individual updrafts within
the pre-frontal convective band have exhibited periodic, weak
low-level rotation per area WSR-88D VWPs, that occasionally tighten
into brief tornadic-intensity circulations (as confirmed by small,
brief CC minima).  This enhanced risk for small/brief tornadoes will
continue for a couple of hours, until the convection shifts eastward
-- in tandem with frontal advance -- into a drier, more stable
low-level environment over northern Florida and southeastern
Georgia.

..Goss/Edwards.. 04/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29728545 30038562 31538492 31958433 31888407 31408368
            30848371 29808409 29468491 29728545 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0502.html