Mesoscale Discussion 0536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and
northwestern Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 163...
Valid 042342Z - 050145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk remains evident across Tornado Watch
163, with greatest short-term tornado potential indicated within a
small corridor near the OK/MO/AR border intersection.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop indicates a broken band of supercell
storms ongoing near the advancing surface cold front, from
southwestern Missouri to south-central Oklahoma. The airmass ahead
of this band remains moderately unstable, with mid 60s dewpoints
beneath very steep lapse rates aloft yielding 3000 to 4000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE.
While deep-layer shear -- owing to veering/increasing flow with
height -- is favorable for strongly rotating updrafts given the
thermodynamic environment, low-level shear remains somewhat weak in
most areas. As such, the main risk remains very large hail, and
locally damaging RFD outflow winds.
However, a locally enhanced area for tornado potential over the next
1-2 hours appears to exist across far northeastern OK, far
southwestern MO, and into northwestern AR. Here, a
northwest-to-southeast outflow boundary is evident, and it appears
that a supercell now moving southeastward into McDonald County
Missouri may move along this boundary -- and the associated zone of
enhanced vorticity. If this occurs, this storm -- or another cell
or two just to the southwest -- may pose locally greater tornado
potential within the narrow corridor in the vicinity of the
boundary.
..Goss.. 05/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34609656 35179674 36089567 37239442 37629349 36929267
35739289 34489455 34609656
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0536.html
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