SPC MD 715

MD 0715 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020

Areas affected...West-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 242358Z - 250200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop across parts of west-central
Texas over the next couple of hours. Wind damage and hail would be
the primary threat. Weather watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a large cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms across west Texas. These storms are moving through a
moderately unstable airmass where surface dewpoints are generally
around 60 F. In spite of relatively weak deep-layer shear with the
DYX WSR-88D VWP showing 20 kt of 0-6 km shear, low-level lapse rates
have become steep. The RAP has a pocket of 0-3 km lapse rates near
9.0 C/km to the north of San Angelo. This should be enough for an
isolated wind damage threat as multicell convection moves
northeastward across west-central Texas. Hail could also occur with
the stronger updrafts. These storms will converge with an outflow
boundary coming from the east which may result in increase in the
severe threat later this evening.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/24/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33289964 33250044 32720074 32310069 31970060 31180036
            30830002 30729925 31029843 31549816 31869824 32849836
            33219868 33289964 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html