SPC Jun 25, 2020 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models are in decent agreement for much of the period
over the east, with both the GFS and ECMWF depicting an upper low
which drifts south from eastern Canada into the Northeast, and then
lingers over the region as a low/trough for most if not all of the
period.

Farther west, however, variance between the models in terms of the
upper flow field exists even from early in the period, with the
smaller-scale features embedded in the broader flow.

With time, even the evolution of the larger features -- namely an
upper trough over the western U.S. -- is handled quite differently. 
The GFS depicts a substantial piece of the trough ejecting eastward
across the Rockies and into the central Plains Days 5-6, while the
ECMWF maintains a more cohesive trough over the West, with only
minor perturbations ejecting east into the central CONUS.

Overall, severe risk appears likely to remain relatively limited
across the U.S., with no obvious, larger, organized severe weather
events apparent at this time.  But given the aforementioned
differences between the models suggesting lack of predictability
with the evolution of the western U.S. trough, uncertainty remains
high with respect to convective potential through the period.

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/