Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...FAR NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening in northeastern Illinois, far northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and far northwest Ohio. Other severe thunderstorms with large hail and wind damage may occur from eastern Colorado into parts of Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa from this evening into the overnight period. ...Southern Great Lakes... The latest radar imagery shows a well-developed line segment from southern Lake Michigan extending southwestward into the Chicago Metro area. According to water vapor imagery, the MCS is located along the leading edge of large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving into the western Great Lakes region. Ahead of the line of severe storms, surface dewpoints are in the 65 to 70 F range and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. In addition, the RAP has a 40 to 50 kt speed max across northern Illinois which is supporting the linear MCS. As this line segment moves quickly eastward across far northeastern Illinois, far northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan over the next 3 to 4 hours, wind damage will be likely along the leading edge. Isolated large hail could also occur with the more intense rotating cells embedded in the line. The line of severe storms is expected to reach western Lake Erie in the 03Z to 04Z timeframe and may produce damaging wind gusts as far east as far northwest Pennsylvania. ...Central High Plains/Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... The latest radar imagery shows scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from western Nebraska into eastern Colorado. These storms were currently in a moderately unstable airmass where deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates are favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and wind damage may occur with supercells and organized multicells. Further to the east into the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley, low-level moisture is greater than in the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints from central Kansas to Iowa are generally in the 65 to 70 F range. This is contributing to strong instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE as high as 4000 J/kg in north-central Kansas. As the convection over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska moves eastward into the stronger instability, severe threat coverage is expected to increase some as an MCS organizes...see MCD 1012. Large hail will continue to be possible, especially with supercells that develop. Wind damage may also occur with supercells and bowing line segments. Wind damage may become the greater threat late this evening especially if linear mode becomes dominant. ..Broyles.. 06/27/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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