SPC MD 1014

MD 1014 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 307... FOR SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN

Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...Southwestern Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

Valid 270109Z - 270215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind/brief tornado threat will be
across southwest Michigan for the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms has become better organized over Lake
Michigan in the past hour. Modest instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE per
SPC mesoanalysis) is present across southwest Michigan ahead of this
line of storms. This instability, combined with 50+ kts of effective
shear, should adequately support a continued damaging-wind threat.
The greatest damaging-wind corridors will likely be near bowing
segments within the greater squall line. 

In addition, a warm front is slowly lifting north across Michigan
with surface winds backed out of the south and southeast near this
warm front. These locally backed winds have resulted in effective
SRH around 300 m2/s2 per SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, a few QLCS
tornadic circulations are possible. In fact, one area of persistent
low-level rotation is now moving into western Van Buren county at
01Z.

..Bentley.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41828674 42138665 42598623 42678576 42568518 42278482
            41948484 41708508 41638566 41718656 41828674 

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