SPC Jun 29, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe storms will be possible across portions of the
northern and central Plains on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the Northeast is forecast to remain in place
Tuesday, while a vigorous, short-wave component of the
larger/longer-wavelength western U.S. trough pivots northeastward in
a negatively tilted manner into/across the central and northern
Plains states.  In between these two features, stout ridging will
prevail from central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes to the
southern Plains.

At the surface, a cool frontal surge is expected across the northern
Plains in tandem with the upper trough advance.  Meanwhile, a
surface low will remain across Kansas, along the western portion of
a weak/wavy frontal zone extending east-southeastward to the
Carolinas through the period.

...The Dakotas and Nebraska, and vicinity...
Storms may be ongoing at the start of the period over the eastern
Montana/western North Dakota region, possibly with some
local/accompanying severe potential.  As the front/trough advances
eastward ahead of the northeastward-pivoting upper system, some
breaches in the cap are expected, leading to scattered afternoon
storm development near the front over the Dakotas, within a
substantially destabilized airmass.  While flow aloft will remain
unidirectional/south-southeasterly, and the strongest of which will
remain well behind the surface front, shear will be sufficient for
the developing storms to organize and grow upscale into bands, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary severe risks.  

Storms may increase/develop southward into the Mid Missouri Valley
region during the evening, along with attendant/local severe
potential.  This threat is expected to persist through the evening,
and possibly into the overnight hours, before storms gradually
diminish.
...Mid MS/lower OH valleys to the Carolinas...
As an upper low lingers over the Northeast, a persistent/broad band
of moderate west-northwesterly cyclonic flow will remain in place
from the Ohio Valley across the Mid South/Southeast.  As
multiple/subtle disturbances/vorticity maxima pivot through the flow
field, another day of scattered, east-southeastward moving
storms/bands of storms is expected.  While the magnitude of the low-
to mid-level flow should remain generally in the 20 to 30 kt range,
a few of the stronger storms/storm clusters will likely produce
locally gusty winds with some possible tree damage.  Severe risk
should diurnally peak in the afternoon/early evening hours, though
storms -- and lingering/local severe risk -- may continue well into
the evening.

..Goss.. 06/29/2020

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html