SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN...

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will swing around the southeastern
edge of a mid-level low today and overspread 40 to 60 mph of flow
across much of the Southwest. At the surface, strong lee troughing
is expected along the Front Range of the Rockies.

...Southwest into the eastern Great Basin...
A strengthening pressure gradient and deep mixing will lead to
strong sustained surface winds across much of the Southwest, eastern
Great Basin, and central Rockies. Relative humidity will be variable
throughout the region but will range from 10 to 25 percent. A
relative maximum in relative humidity is expected across the
northern half of Arizona where relative humidity might only fall to
the upper teens to low 20s. However, this is below the strongest
mid-level winds and thus sustained surface winds are expected to
exceed 30 mph. Therefore, even though relative humidity might not
fall to critical criteria, the extreme wind speed will be sufficient
to keep a critical fire weather area in this region.

...California Central Valley...
Moderate mid-level northerly flow is expected to align parallel to
the central Valley today. Therefore, deep mixing in the wake of a
surface cold front should transport some of this stronger flow to
the surface. Surface winds are expected to be 15 to 20 mph with
relative humidity 15 to 20 percent supporting an elevated fire
weather threat.

...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into the
central Rockies...
Thunderstorms are expected across much of the Northwest into the
northern Great Basin and Rockies. Thunderstorms across northern
Nevada, Utah, and Colorado are expected in an environment with PWAT
values around 0.5 to 0.6 inches. Therefore, storms are expected to
be mostly dry. There are some variable fuel states, especially
across northern Utah, but at least some dry fuels remain across even
this region and thus an isolated lightning induced fire start
remains possible.

..Bentley.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html