SPC MD 1012

MD 1012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 1012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast Kansas...Southeast
Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 262330Z - 270100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted if
thunderstorms develop over the next 1-2 hours. Hail/wind are the
main threats.

DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging, in the wake of northern IL
MCS, is expected to shift east across the mid-MO Valley over the
next few hours. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests this is
underway, and brief subsidence will wane. This should become more
supportive for thunderstorm development over the next few hours.

Latest vis satellite imagery exhibits a substantial cu field from
north-central KS, arcing into southwest IA. Within this field,
several deeper towers are beginning to generate anvils along with a
few showers. Sustained low-level warm advection should aid
convective development over the next few hours, especially as LLJ
strengthens after sunset. CAMs support a considerable increase along
this corridor, just south of the wind shift, and this lends
confidence that a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 01z.

..Darrow/Edwards.. 06/26/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39739781 40379727 41139579 41049424 40199459 38709652
            38999762 39739781 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1012.html