Mesoscale Discussion 1041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Areas affected...Northeast WY...Southeast MT...Western SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313... Valid 282318Z - 290115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 313 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe will continue across the northern High Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating appears to be the primary instigator in strong convective development across WY into the Black Hills region late this afternoon. Several robust updrafts, with severe hail, are moving into western SD at roughly 30-35kt. This activity will encounter increasingly moist/buoyant air mass over the next hour or so, and strengthening is possible if convection is able to ingest boundary-layer air mass characterized by upper 50s surface dew points. Upstream, high-based convection is gradually deepening across central WY, well west of higher instability. Steep lapse rates should allow this quick-moving activity to spread back into southern portions of the watch later this evening. Strengthening is most likely to occur farther downstream near the Black Hills. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 43570596 45900559 45920245 43580296 43570596Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1041.html
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