Mesoscale Discussion 1044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020 Areas affected...Southeast MN...Northeast IA...Western WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 315... Valid 290020Z - 290215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues. SUMMARY...Greatest short-term severe threat is shifting across southeast MN into western Wisconsin. DISCUSSION...Remnant MCV that originated with central Plains convection has lifted north-northeast across western IA into south-central MN, very near McLeod County. This feature appears to be mostly responsible for an arcing band of scattered supercells that is spreading northeast toward the MS River, and soon to be in western WI. Air mass remains moist/buoyant just downstream and latest thinking is this activity, and subsequent severe threat, may spread a bit east of current watch border. For these reasons, tornado watch may need to be extended east to account for this threat. Upstream across northwestern IA, isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop in the wake of the ongoing MCS. It would appear that weak short-wave ridging may negatively affect convection across this region; however, several CAMs solutions suggest deep convection may actually increase over the next few hours, possibly due to increasing LLJ. Will monitor this scenario for possible new ww. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 43299333 44619454 44619209 43319096 43299333Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1044.html
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