SPC MD 1053

MD 1053 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Areas affected...North central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 292355Z - 300130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...There is a locally enhanced severe weather threat in
north-central Texas for the remainder of the evening.

DISCUSSION...At least 3 supercells have developed in Shackelford and
Throckmorton counties in the last hour. These storms have formed in
an environment with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis with
effective shear around 30 knots per KDYX VWP. This environment will
continue to support at least transient supercell structures with
this activity. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging
winds. These storms are surface based, and thus, given the lack of a
strong upper-level forcing, should weaken considerably after 9PM as
the boundary layer cools.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/29/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   31929958 32100011 32550019 33269989 33799933 33789850
            33109794 32509792 32219815 32069874 31929958 

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