SPC MD 804

MD 0804 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244... FOR SOUTHEAST PA INTO SOUTHERN NJ

Mesoscale Discussion 0804
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0644 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Areas affected...southeast PA into southern NJ

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...

Valid 032344Z - 040115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms ongoing near PHI and the southwestern edge of WW244
will continue to pose a threat for damaging winds and occasional
severe hail. Some westward redevelopment is possible but the
convectively overturned air mass will likely limit the threat to
ongoing storms.

DISCUSSION...Severe weather will remain likely across portions of
WW244 through 0200z. These storms are ongoing ahead of a wind shift/
surface pressure trough across eastern PA and western Maryland. Very
warm surface temperatures in the 90s and surface dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s F are supporting 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Deep
layer shear of 35-45 will continue to support a mix of isolated
supercells and bowing segments. Hodographs remain mostly straight
line which suggests that the primary threat will remain damaging
wind gusts. Occasional severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out, especially with the more discrete convection toward the
southwestern end of the watch. A general decrease in convective
intensity is likely as storms begin to move off shore and daytime
heating is lost. Until then however, severe weather will remain
likely.

..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON   40047383 40617609 40487714 40327739 40097740 38977392
            40047383 

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