SPC MD 824

MD 0824 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 251... FOR TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS

Mesoscale Discussion 0824
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0610 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Areas affected...Texas South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251...

Valid 042310Z - 050115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 251
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms is moving southeast across the Texas
South Plains with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
severe threats. Storms are likely to continue moving southeast into
the evening, and a local watch extension may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of damaging winds and radar
signatures indicative of large hail are moving southeast across the
Texas South Plains northeast of Lubbock. Weaker storms are
developing upstream of the two supercells across Hale, Floyd, and
Motley counties along outflow and near a surface pressure
trough/dryline. Given the relatively straight, long hodographs and
northwest flow, storm splitting will likely to continue. However,
supercellular structure will likely continue with 35-45 knots of
effective bulk shear. 

Given the downstream environment, storms are likely to continue,
although after sunset, storms are likely to weaken. The low level
jet will likely strengthen across the southern High Plains, which
could sustain convection tonight. However, the more likely scenario
is for storms to continue through sunset and move out of the current
watch. A local extension is likely, and a new downstream watch may
be necessary depending on how storms evolve over the next few hours.

..Nauslar/Goss.. 06/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33710177 34180205 34530212 34520134 34510048 34469995
            33839945 33419965 33200001 33200085 33300145 33710177 

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