Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Within the mid-latitude westerlies, models suggest that larger-scale troughing will gradually dig east/south of the Great Lakes region during the early to middle portion of next week. As this occurs, associated forcing for ascent may contribute to considerable thunderstorm development along and ahead of an associated cold front, which could impact much of the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region Tuesday into Wednesday. Although stronger mid-level flow may continue to tend to lag to the northwest of the surface frontal zone, at least some model output suggests that moderate to large CAPE could develop to the east of the Appalachians, and perhaps support a risk for thunderstorm activity capable of producing damaging wind gusts. While this potential still appears low/uncertain enough that severe weather probabilities are maintained at less than 15 percent, it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. In the wake of this troughing, a weaker belt of cyclonic mid-level flow may gradually develop east of the northern Rockies through the Southeast states, downstream of increasingly prominent ridging becoming centered over the Southwest. It appears that one fairly significant perturbation may round the crest of the ridging, before digging within the developing northwest flow across the western Dakotas/Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by next Wednesday. Accompanied by the eastward advection of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air, associated destabilization may contribute to an environment conducive to organizing thunderstorm clusters capable of producing severe wind and hail. However, the predictability of any such activity at this extended range is also rather low, maintaining severe probabilities at less than 15 percent for now.Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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