Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MT AND FAR WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains and northern Plains from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. ...Northern High Plains/Northern Plains... A belt of strong southwesterly/westerly flow aloft is forecast to extend from central CA through the northern Plains/Canadian Prairie Province into the Upper Midwest/Ontario. A shortwave trough is expected to move within this enhanced flow aloft on Tuesday, reaching the northern High Plains by Tuesday afternoon and the northern Plains/Canadian Prairie Provinces by early Wednesday morning. Surface lee troughing is expected to deepen ahead of this system, with the resulting increase in the pressure gradient contributing to strong low-level moisture advection into central/eastern MT. This low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate to strong instability, from central MT into the western Dakotas, ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and its attendant surface low. Additionally, southeasterly surface winds beneath the aforementioned belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will contribute to strong vertical shear. Current expectation is for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the surface low and cold front associated with the approaching shortwave trough. Initial development currently looks most likely across central MT Tuesday afternoon. The conditions previously mentioned with result in an environment conducive to severe thunderstorms, including the potential for an organized convective line. A few discrete supercells are also likely. Greatest probability for severe thunderstorm currently appears to be over eastern MT and far western ND as the front moves through Tuesday evening. A strong low-level jet will support severe thunderstorm potential eastward across ND and northern SD Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. All severe hazards are possible, with large hail currently expected to be primary threat. ...Elsewhere... Numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast states, but weak vertical shear will keep any severe threat very isolated. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are also possible over the central and southern High Plains. Severe probabilities in these areas are currently less than 5%. ..Mosier.. 07/05/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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