Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Plains on D4/Wednesday with an attendant surface low moving just ahead of it. As this surface low moves northeastward, an associated cold front is expected to move southeastward across the Upper Midwest, interacting with the moist and unstable air mass in place over the region. Thunderstorms are expected along this front, some of which could be severe. The better vertical shear will likely remain behind the front, limiting the severe potential. Additionally, the overall convective evolution on D3/Tuesday remains uncertain, which has downstream impacts on predictability on D4/Wednesday. Given these factors, will not include any probabilities over the Upper Midwest with this outlook. From D5/Thursday through D8/Sunday, upper ridging is expected to build over the Southwest while a belt of enhanced westerly flow persists from northern CA/Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest. Several shortwave troughs are expected to move through this westerly flow aloft and potentially interact with the warm, moist, and unstable air mass across the central/northern Plains and mid/upper MS Valley. However, highlighting areas of great risk within this pattern is difficult due to the subtle nature of the shortwave troughs and general poor predictability. As such, no areas will be highlighted at this time, though some severe areas will likely need to be considered in future outlooks.Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
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