Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2020 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across the Northern Plains, including northeast Wyoming to the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. ...Northern Plains... An apparent low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across southern MT this evening. Convection is responding to this feature downstream per vis satellite imagery. It appears several deepening/expanding glaciated updrafts over south-central MT should continue to progress along the WY/MT border region, just north of the front that has settled south of the Black Hills. Other scattered storms are spreading across northeast WY toward western SD, and this activity is likely influenced by the approaching short wave as well. Downstream, scattered, less focused storms extend along a diffuse frontal zone from central SD into northwest MN. Strongest updrafts remain capable of generating hail along with gusty winds. ...Southern New England... Scattered convection has gradually congealed within northwest flow ahead of a mid-level short-wave trough. 00z sounding from CHH does not sample the inflow air mass well, though modest lapse rates are noted within the 1-4km layer. Upstream, 00z sounding from ALB is likely more representative with roughly 800 J/kg SBCAPE. Radar data suggests several clusters of storms over southern NH may be producing small hail and gusty winds. this activity will likely spread toward the Atlantic Coast before weakening appreciably, hence the decision to maintain 5% severe probs across southern New England. ..Darrow.. 07/06/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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