Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are possible over a portion of the central and southern Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley as well as the upper Midwest today into tonight. ...Southeast Kansas through central and eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley... MCS will be ongoing most likely over far southeast KS to southwest MO by 12Z this morning. These storms will pose an ongoing threat for strong to damaging wind gusts as they develop southeast through the moderately unstable atmosphere across eastern OK into northwest AR before eventually weakening as they shift southeast of the low-level jet and stronger winds aloft. Additional storms might initiate along the outflow boundary across AR as the surface layer destabilizes, and these could also pose a risk for strong to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ...Central High Plains... A cold front will advance slowly south through the central Plains during the day. Easterly low-level upslope flow will become established in the post frontal region with dewpoints in the 60s F advecting westward beneath steep mid-level lapse rates supporting a corridor of moderate instability (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) over the central High Plains. The atmosphere will likely remain capped to surface based storms most of the day, especially given weak upper forcing. However, at least isolated thunderstorm development will be possible in this regime where 45+ kt effective bulk shear and a favorable thermodynamic environment will support potential for supercells. Large hail will be the initial main threat, but some upscale growth might occur which will augment damaging wind potential. ...Upper Midwest... MCV from last night's storms will drift into the upper Midwest today where the atmosphere will likely become moderately unstable with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms will likely redevelop along southeast-advancing cold front and residual outflow boundaries. Weak vertical wind profiles will support multicells, possibly evolving into lines and clusters capable of isolated strong to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon. ..Dial/Moore.. 07/09/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
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