Mesoscale Discussion 1151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 09 2020
Areas affected...Western and North-central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090553Z - 090830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be likely over the next
couple of hours. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the
primary threats. The potential is expected to eventually become
marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows several small
thunderstorm clusters ongoing from just south of Fargo, North Dakota
extending northeastward toward the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Surface
analysis has a 1005 mb low over western Minnesota with a cold front
from northwest Minnesota into northeastern South Dakota. The
convection is located ahead of the front in a moist airmass with
surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F. This is contributing to
moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg in
northeast Minnesota to as great as 3500 J/kg in west-central
Minnesota. In addition to the instability, WSR-88D VWP at Duluth and
Aberdeen have 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. Although deep-layer shear may
be a bit weaker across north-central Minnesota, the instability will
be enough to support a severe threat for a couple more hours. Cells
are expected to remain widely scattered in nature. For this reason,
the severe threat should remain isolated. Wind damage and isolated
large hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/09/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46129306 46599225 47149198 47529218 47729252 47879318
47739392 47509443 47299485 46969553 46679611 46429654
46079670 45899671 45599658 45399617 45399561 45609482
45819420 46129306
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1151.html
No comments:
Post a Comment