SPC MD 1085

MD 1085 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322... FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322...

Valid 022316Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 322
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail continues for portions
of WW 322.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from western SD and southwest ND
continue to show a combination of discrete/semi-discrete storms
across southwest SD with more linear modes noted across northwest
SD. The greatest near-term threat for severe wind will likely be
associated with the southern edge of the developing line of storms
across northwest SD. While the northern half of this line will
likely struggle to maintain intensity as it moves into an air mass
with greater inhibition (per recent RAP mesoanalysis), the southern
portions should remain on the periphery of the more stable air and
will continue to pose the risk for severe wind as the line moves to
the east/northeast. 

To the south of this line, scattered thunderstorm development
continues along outflow boundaries from prior convection. Although
the gradual development of a stable cold pool in this region will
eventually limit the convective potential, favorable 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE should maintain the
threat for severe hail and wind with the strongest storms for the
next 1-2 hours.

..Moore.. 07/02/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   45520246 45760210 45850151 45300045 44670053 44190089
            43700148 43480206 43330292 43510328 44050341 44700273
            45520246 

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