SPC MD 1086

MD 1086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...South-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 030004Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An eastward propagating MCS should continue into portions
of south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas over the next 1-3
hours and will pose a risk for severe wind.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends from northwest KS and southwest NE
continue to show upscale growth as cold pool amalgamation and cell
mergers from the south continue to organize into an eastward moving
MCS. This line of storms is expected to continue to propagate into
south-central NE and north-central KS over the next 1-3 hours.
Although it will become increasingly displaced from the more
favorable deep layer shear to the west, steep 7.5-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates ahead of the line, coupled with upwards of 4000 J/kg
MLCAPE, will continue to favor strong outflow winds and the
potential for severe wind gusts. A watch is likely to cover this
threat prior to a gradual decay later this evening.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39139951 40150028 41340034 41489988 41499876 41219809
            40749771 40049771 39249812 39129882 39139951 

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