SPC MD 1089

MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2020

Areas affected...Central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 030215Z - 030315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...An MCS propagating into central KS should continue to
support severe wind gusts over the next 1-2 hours. A watch will be
issued soon to address this threat.

DISCUSSION...An MCS moving across northern KS continues to produce
severe winds gusts, including along its southern flank with 60-70
mph winds recently reported. These wind reports support recent radar
trends which show the southern portion of the line beginning to
accelerate to the east/southeast. New convection developing ahead of
this southeastward surge suggests that conditions remain favorable
for continued propagation. This is supported by recent RAP
mesoanalysis which shows Low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in this region, suggesting that the severe
wind threat should continue for the next one to two hours. As such,
a watch is likely to cover this wind threat.

..Moore/Thompson.. 07/03/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39409991 39639912 39479752 38959706 38349688 38069759
            38029820 38389937 38709979 39409991 

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