SPC MD 1095

MD 1095 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 327... FOR EASTERN MONTANA

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2020

Areas affected...eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327...

Valid 040122Z - 040315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 327
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail and wind continues across WW 327.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends
continue to show periodic intensification in convection across WW
327. Recent 00 UTC soundings from Glasgow, MT and RAP mesoanalysis
show relatively small MLCIN in place across eastern/northeast MT
with upwards of 2000-3000 J/km MLCAPE. Observed wind profiles also
show around 30 knots of effective bulk shear, but nearly straight
hodographs below 5 km will continue to support storm splits, at
least for the near term. This will increase the potential for
destructive storm interactions as storms continue to develop with a
zone of ascent from the MT/ND/SD border region northwestward towards
Glasgow, MT. However, as these storms continue to the east/northeast
they should encounter an environment with improved instability and
deep layer shear, suggesting the potential for severe hail and wind
will continue for at least the next 1-2 hours.

..Moore.. 07/04/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45350448 45510586 46170642 47290667 47830667 48320647
            48670550 48800387 48540319 47430304 45790305 45350448 

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