SPC MD 1105

MD 1105 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 329... FOR EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

Mesoscale Discussion 1105
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Areas affected...eastern Montana and western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329...

Valid 050246Z - 050445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 329
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail continues across WW
329 and scattered storms move into eastern MT. These storms may
impact portions of western North Dakota, and a downstream watch may
be needed.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends have shown an uptick in
convection across northeast MT over the past hour, while a broken
line of storms continues to the east across southeast MT. Despite an
increase in MLCIN due to diurnal cooling, the environment remains
favorable for organized convection with 40-45 knots of effective
bulk shear and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Clusters of semi-discrete
storms across northeast MT should continue to gradually grow upscale
and shift the main hazard threat from hail to damaging winds over
the next 1-2 hours. To the south, MRMS vertically integrated ice
trends and IR imagery suggest that the broken line of storms has
roughly maintained intensity and remains largely below severe
limits. That being said, it should remain within the aforementioned
favorable environment, so a brief re-intensification can not be
ruled out over the next 1-2 hours. Trends will continue to be
monitored as these storms move towards the MT/ND border, and a
downstream watch may be warranted.

..Moore.. 07/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   47650736 48620758 49070682 49090411 48990295 48150255
            47120221 46360240 45750294 45500402 45410478 45680550
            46250533 46700569 47390688 47650736 

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