SPC MD 1104

MD 1104 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 328... FOR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

Mesoscale Discussion 1104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020

Areas affected...Northwest Minnesota to far northeast South Dakota.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 050104Z - 050300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...The main threat areas for severe hail and wind will likely
be confined to northwest Minnesota over the next one to two hours.
Severe hail and winds will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show continued convective
development along a diffuse trough axis and along convective outflow
boundaries across far northwest Minnesota. Although these storms
remain in a favorable instability/shear parameter space, storm
interactions are limiting the overall severe threat and intensity of
any one storm. This trend will likely continue for the near term as
RAP forecast soundings show a nearly straight hodograph below 5 km,
favoring storm splits across this region. However, recent forecasts
suggest that a slight strengthening in the low-level jet between
01-03 UTC could augment deep layer shear and allow the threat for
hail and wind to persist into the late evening.

..Moore.. 07/05/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   47109466 46859506 46879594 47089678 47479696 48299677
            48869643 49239556 49169459 48749418 47839420 47109466 

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