SPC MD 1166

MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Kansas...Far Northern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 100941Z - 101015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind
gusts will be possible over the next few hours across south-central
Kansas. A watch is currently being issued across south-central and
southeast Kansas.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
thunderstorms across parts of central Kansas. The storms are located
ahead of a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms are also located along a gradient of moderate instability
extending from northwest Kansas southeastward into northern
Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating that MUCAPE values across central
Kansas are in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will fuel the storms
as they move southeastward across southeastern Kansas over the next
few hours. Forecast soundings at Wichita have 50 kt of cloud-layer
shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. The
environment should be adequate for large hail. Although the storms
should remain mostly elevated, a few severe wind gusts can not be
ruled out.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   36999591 36589650 36589791 36879860 37379918 38069944
            38469976 38899994 39159971 39189917 39159841 38979744
            38449667 37779592 36999591 

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1166.html