SPC MD 1196

MD 1196 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358...360... FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Northern/Eastern Oklahoma...Western Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...360...

Valid 120359Z - 120530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 360
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat should gradually sag southeast across
northern and eastern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...An expansive area of deep convection has evolved across
northern and eastern Oklahoma this evening. A reservoir of very
moist/unstable air has yet to be overturned across OK/AR this
evening where MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg remains. Thunderstorms over
eastern OK have recently increased their forward propagation to near
35kt with the leading edge approaching the southern-most portion of
ww358 over Le Flore County. There is some concern this activity may
propagate south of the Red River; if so, a new ww may be considered.

Farther northwest, thunderstorms have struggled to build a
sufficient cold pool that would initiate a southward surge. However,
this may begin to change soon. Latest radar data suggests a weak MCV
may be forming over northwest OK and if so, an increase in
convection may begin soon that would result in a more southward push
toward central OK. Wind/hail remain possible.

..Darrow.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36759666 35689451 34239391 33659489 34749625 35839865
            36809871 36759666 

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