Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...361...
Valid 120617Z - 120815Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360, 361
continues.
SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
to move southeastward from southeastern Oklahoma into northeast
Texas and far southwest Arkansas over the next few hours. A new
weather watch issuance may be needed to the southeast of WW 360 and
WW 361.
DISCUSSION...The latest IR imagery shows a large MCS located from
the southern Plains into the Ozarks. The latest mosaic radar imagery
has the brunt of the MCS across much of Oklahoma with one band of
severe convection to the southeast of the OKC Metro. These storms
have recently produced wind gusts in excess of 70 kt. Another band
of severe storms is located in far southeast Oklahoma. The MCS is
located in a strongly unstable airmass that is analyzed from
south-central Oklahoma eastward to southwest Arkansas. The RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range along this
corridor. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Fort Smith has 0-6 km
shear near 40 kt which appears representative of shear across much
of the Arklatex. This should be favorable for damaging wind gusts as
the MCS moves southeastward over the next few hours. Isolated large
hail may also occur with the more intense cores embedded in the MCS.
As cells move to the south of the Red River, some weakening could
occur due to weaker instability across north-central Texas. For this
reason, the stronger convection is expected to move a bit further
east across northeast Texas and far southwest Arkansas where strong
instability is present.
..Broyles.. 07/12/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34999495 35239604 35289671 35079699 34849722 34629726
34469718 34199699 33939652 33479571 32909522 32729505
32459487 32229444 32309403 32809351 33389334 34199378
34999495
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1197.html
No comments:
Post a Comment