SPC MD 1230

MD 1230 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Areas affected...central through eastern Kansas into northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150607Z - 150700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts and some
hail will exist through the early morning across a portion of
central through eastern Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a
possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing in multiple regimes
including across southwest Kansas in association with an MCV as well
as across south central and southeast Kansas within an evolving warm
advection regime. Objective analysis indicates a reservoir of
moderate instability remaining across eastern Kansas with 2000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE. Storms have recently shown some intensification and
organization across south central KS, and this activity will
continue to be monitored for persistence and possible evolution into
a forward propagating line/cluster as it develops eastward through
the moderately unstable environment.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38009831 38479804 39029673 38899590 38209572 37429660
            37379808 38009831 

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