SPC MD 1327

MD 1327 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398... FOR CENTRAL MONTANA

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Areas affected...Central Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398...

Valid 232324Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible for a couple
more hours this evening. Wind damage and hail will be the primary
threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest volumetric radar imagery out of Great Falls,
Montana shows scattered thunderstorms to the east of Great Falls
extending southward into south-central Montana. The RAP suggests
that instability is relatively weak across central Montana with
SBCAPE values generally estimated to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in central Montana have
850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km with 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 30 kt range. This could be enough for a severe threat for a
couple more hours this evening. Although storm mode is expected to
remain multicell, wind damage will be possible with the more
organized line segments. Hail will also be possible with the
stronger cores.

..Broyles.. 07/23/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON   48381123 47501102 46051033 45260993 45120926 45430841
            46300822 47270866 48370940 48651002 48381123 

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