SPC MD 1354

MD 1354 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Areas affected...western and southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 300555Z - 300830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of storms may produce localized strong
to severe wind gusts over the next few hours, but the disorganized
nature does not currently warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...A strong northerly surge across northwest KS has led to
a line of storms which is currently moving into central KS. While
the surface air mass is a bit cool due to earlier convection, the
air mass remains moist, with pockets of stronger instability across
the region. The fast-moving nature of these clusters in association
with a midlevel speed max may allow for isolated strong to severe
wind gusts despite northerly low-level winds and areas of
pre-existing outflow.

To the south, another notable cluster over north-central OK will
continue east/southeast into northeast OK, producing mainly 40-50
mph winds. 850 mb winds will continue to veering tonight, suggesting
threat corridor will remain north of I-40 in OK. If storms over
southwest KS can grow upscale a bit, perhaps isolated strong gusts
will be possible into northwest OK later tonight.

..Jewell/Grams.. 07/30/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37070132 37620144 37930099 38510024 38919985 39339968
            39209909 38889837 38019745 37189658 36639588 36439509
            36379478 35989467 35669491 35779619 36019762 36089841
            36249921 36570002 37070132 

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