Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds will continue ahead of a long-lived Derecho that is progressing across the Ohio Valley. Isolated severe gusts are also possible extending west into portions of Kansas/northern Oklahoma. ...Ohio Valley... Early-day MCS that formed over southeast SD/northeast NE quickly grew upscale into a damaging Derecho then progressed across IA/northern IL into the northern OH Valley. Leading squall line has surged across southwest lower MI, arcing along the IN/OH border into southern IN. Air mass downstream across eastern OH/western PA is notably drier and more stable than regions farther west across the lower OH Valley. This elongated MCS should gradually slow its forward propagation and eventually lessen in intensity. Have extended severe probabilities downstream to account for some uncertainty regarding the eastern edge of this severe threat. Until this squall line weakens damaging wind threat will continue. Farther southwest across southern IN/southern IL/southern MO, what appears to be the weak remnants of an old MCV has progressed into east-central MO, northwest of St. Louis. Convection has gradually expanded in areal coverage/intensity ahead of this feature and a more expansive precip shield/cold pool is forming. This evolution will likely contribute to a more southeastward-moving squall line that could surge across western KY toward parts of western/middle TN later this evening. These trends warrant extending higher severe probabilities into portions of TN. ...KS/OK... Surface front currently trails west across KS along the I-70 corridor. Northwesterly flow is forecast to deepen across the central Plains in the wake of a short-wave trough as it translates through the mid-MS Valley. Over the last few hours, convection has gradually expanded along a corridor from the northern TX Panhandle into west-central KS. There is some indication this activity may continue to expand in areal coverage and subsequent movement could result in strong/severe convective threat spreading southeast across southern KS and northern OK. Damaging winds are the primary threat. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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