SPC MD 1463

MD 1463 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN

Mesoscale Discussion 1463
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 110016Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A increase in strong/locally severe storm coverage is
expected over the next 1 to 2 hours, before convection spreads
across Lake Huron and into Ontario later tonight.  WW issuance is
not expected, due to marginal/local/isolated nature of the risk for
wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection increase across
northern Lower Michigan, north and northeast of the comma head of
the well-defined, bowing MCS crossing the southern half of the
state.  

Instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE) across this region
remains sufficient to support vigorous storms, but with rather
modest (20 to 30 kt) deep-layer west-southwesterly flow across the
area per latest APX WSR-88D VWP and model analyses, storms should
remain only loosely organized.  While some attendant risk for
gusty/possibly damaging winds may occur with the strongest storms,
risk should remain limited/isolated such that WW issuance will
likely not be needed.

..Goss.. 08/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON   43598675 44718670 45888494 45668286 44058320 43448458
            43598675 

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