Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible Friday from a portion of the Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Other strong to severe storms may occur over the central Plains. ...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... An east-west quasi-stationary front will stretch across the Great Lakes into southern portions of the Northeast States early Friday. Elevated storms should be in progress within zone of isentropic ascent north of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector farther south. The atmosphere will likely become moderately to strongly unstable as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon with MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg possible. A southeast-advancing cold front will accompany a progressive northern-stream trough through the upper MS Valley during the afternoon, continuing into the Midwest during the evening. Additional storms will likely develop as the front interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer from southern WI into IA and this activity will subsequently spread southeast. Vertical wind profiles will strengthen as the upper trough advances east-southeast, and potential will exist for organized storms including lines with bowing segments and embedded supercells. Damaging wind and hail should be the main threats. ...Central Plains... While more substantial thunderstorm initiation along the cold front remains uncertain during the afternoon, a greater signal exists in the upslope region of CO where storms will likely develop over the higher terrain by late afternoon. This activity will spread east into the central High Plains posing a risk for a few damaging wind gusts and hail. Additional storms may develop overnight across KS, mainly north of the front, and some of this activity may become capable of producing hail and locally strong wind gusts. This region will continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT risk in later updates. ...Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys... The kinematic environment associated with the remnants of Laura should remain favorable for a few tornadoes during the afternoon from a portion of the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley as the system begins to turn more northeasterly and easterly. ..Dial.. 08/26/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
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