Wednesday, August 26, 2020

SPC Aug 26, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible Friday from a portion of the
Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Other strong to
severe storms may occur over the central Plains.

...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley...

An east-west quasi-stationary front will stretch across the Great
Lakes into southern portions of the Northeast States early Friday.
Elevated storms should be in progress within zone of isentropic
ascent north of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture with upper
60s to low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector farther
south. The atmosphere will likely become moderately to strongly
unstable as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon with
MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg possible. A southeast-advancing cold
front will accompany a progressive northern-stream trough through
the upper MS Valley during the afternoon, continuing into the
Midwest during the evening. Additional storms will likely develop as
the front interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer from
southern WI into IA and this activity will subsequently spread
southeast. Vertical wind profiles will strengthen as the upper
trough advances east-southeast, and potential will exist for
organized storms including lines with bowing segments and embedded
supercells. Damaging wind and hail should be the main threats. 

...Central Plains...

While more substantial thunderstorm initiation along the cold front
remains uncertain during the afternoon, a greater signal exists in
the upslope region of CO where storms will likely develop over the
higher terrain by late afternoon. This activity will spread east
into the central High Plains posing a risk for a few damaging wind
gusts and hail. Additional storms may develop overnight across KS,
mainly north of the front, and some of this activity may become
capable of producing hail and locally strong wind gusts. This region
will continue to be monitored for a possible SLGT risk in later
updates. 

...Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys...

The kinematic environment associated with the remnants of Laura
should remain favorable for a few tornadoes during the afternoon
from a portion of the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley as the
system begins to turn more northeasterly and easterly.

..Dial.. 08/26/2020

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html

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