SPC Aug 29, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible over parts of the Great
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large
hail the main threats.

...Great Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains on
Sunday as flow aloft remains divergent across the central and
northern Plains. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be in place from western Kansas northward into central
South Dakota where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range. A cold front will advance southeastward across the
central and northern Plains, providing a focus for convective
development during the mid to late afternoon. Although thunderstorms
should initially remain relatively isolated, convective coverage is
expected to increase during the early evening. A few clusters of
storms appear likely to move east-southward across the
instability/moisture corridor.

In addition to the moderate instability, model forecasts show 0-6 km
shear in the 35 to 45 kt range across much of the central and
northern Plains. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. This
environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. A
wind-damage threat will also likely accompany supercells. The
potential for wind damage and hail is expected to persist into the
early to mid evening as several organized short line segments move
east-southeastward across the region.

...Arkansas River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower Missouri
Valley and Ozarks on Sunday. At the surface, an east-to-west
corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from the
southern Plains Red River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along this
corridor during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is forecast
to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, moderate instability will be in
place and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This should be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 08/29/2020

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from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html