Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 03 2020 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN CO... ...SUMMARY... Some tornado threat will be possible from eastern North Carolina into southern New England Tuesday into Tuesday night, in association with Isaias. A few severe thunderstorms will also be possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Eastern NC into Southern New England... T.C Isaias is forecast to be centered over northeastern NC Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings continue to show low level shear increasing through the morning and into the afternoon from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, as the system tracks northeast with increasing forward speed through Wednesday morning. Low level shear will be favorable for rotation in cells developing over the Coastal Plain or moving inland in outer bands as low level hodographs become enlarged with northeast extent through peak heating. A couple of tornadoes will be possible with this activity, and an upgrade to Slight risk may be needed in subsequent outlooks as confidence in timing and track increases. ...Northern/Central High Plains... A weak shortwave impulse will migrate through northwesterly flow aloft during the afternoon/evening. Upslope southeasterly low level flow will transport mid 50s to near 60 F dewpoints westward across eastern CO into western NE/KS where strong heating will aid in moderate destabilization amid steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings indicate effective shear greater than 35 kt, resulting in organized, rotating updrafts. Meanwhile, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles indicate potential for strong downbursts. As storms move off of higher terrain near the I-25 corridor, a few severe storms capable of strong gusts and large hail are expected during the late afternoon and evening hours. Inhibition will increase with eastward extent, and convection is expected to gradually weaken as it tracks east/southeast toward the OK/TX Panhandle and western KS by late evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 08/03/2020Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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